VIENNA – Austria’s political landscape has been thrown into disarray after talks between the two largest centrist parties aimed at forming a coalition government collapsed on Saturday. Chancellor Karl Nehammer of the People’s Party (ÖVP) confirmed that he would step down from his post in the coming days, adding another layer of uncertainty to the country’s already turbulent political scene.
The breakdown in negotiations followed the sudden withdrawal of the Neos, a small liberal party, which had been engaged in the talks to form a coalition government excluding the far-right Freedom Party (FPO). The Neos explained that they had exited the discussions due to their dissatisfaction with the direction the talks had taken, accusing the other parties of failing to adopt bold and decisive action in the negotiations.
In a video statement posted on social media platform X, Nehammer acknowledged the collapse of the talks and made clear his decision to resign. “I will stand down as chancellor and as leader of the People’s Party in the coming days and enable an orderly transition,” Nehammer stated. His announcement has sent shockwaves through Austria’s political establishment, marking a significant moment in the ongoing challenges faced by the country’s governing coalition.
The Collapse of Coalition Negotiations
The failure of coalition talks marks a pivotal moment in Austria’s ongoing efforts to find political stability after the September elections. Nehammer’s People’s Party had been in discussions with the Social Democrats (SPÖ), hoping to form a centrist coalition that could steer the country away from the growing influence of the far-right FPO. However, despite several weeks of talks, a consensus could not be reached, and the Neos’ exit from the negotiations added a further complication.
The Freedom Party (FPO), which has become the dominant force in Austrian politics, secured 29% of the vote in the September parliamentary elections. While this makes it the largest party in the Nationalrat (the Austrian parliament), its controversial stance on issues such as euroscepticism and its pro-Russia rhetoric has made it a highly divisive force in Austrian politics. Chancellor Nehammer had previously ruled out any collaboration with Herbert Kickl, the leader of the FPO, in what was seen as an attempt to maintain the political establishment’s distance from the far-right. This has left Austria in a precarious position, with no clear path to a workable coalition.
Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen, a former leader of the Greens, had tasked Nehammer with forming a new government in the aftermath of the election. With Nehammer’s resignation now confirmed, the possibility of a new coalition between the People’s Party (ÖVP) and Social Democrats (SPÖ) seems increasingly unlikely. As a result, there are two main options left: either Herbert Kickl will be invited to form a government, or a snap election will be called, offering voters another opportunity to reshape the political landscape.
FPO’s Rising Popularity: A Potential Path to Power
One of the most striking features of Austria’s political turmoil is the rising popularity of the Freedom Party (FPO). Since the September elections, the far-right party has seen its support grow substantially, with recent opinion polls showing the FPO leading the People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Social Democrats (SPÖ) by more than 10 percentage points. This surge in support highlights a deepening dissatisfaction with the country’s traditional political elite and suggests that the FPO is well-positioned to take power, should Herbert Kickl be invited to form a government.
The FPO’s rise is emblematic of a wider trend across Europe, where populist and far-right parties have gained ground in response to issues such as immigration, economic inequality, and the erosion of national sovereignty. In Austria, the FPO’s rhetoric on issues such as European integration and its stance on the war in Ukraine have made it a lightning rod for controversy. While its Eurosceptic policies have resonated with a significant portion of the electorate, they have also made the FPO a pariah for many of Austria’s mainstream political parties.
If Kickl is given the mandate to form a government, it would represent a significant shift to the right for Austria. This would likely entail a government that is more sceptical of EU integration and less supportive of international diplomacy, particularly with regard to Russia and Ukraine. Such a shift would also raise questions about Austria’s domestic policies, particularly with regard to immigration, social welfare, and the economy.
The Potential Risks of an FPO-ÖVP Government
The prospect of an FPO-ÖVP coalition has raised serious concerns within Austria’s political establishment. Andreas Babler, leader of the Social Democrats, issued a stark warning following the collapse of the coalition talks, claiming that an FPO-ÖVP government would pose a significant threat to Austria’s democratic values.
“We know what threatens to happen now,” Babler said in a news conference. “An FPO-ÖVP government with a right-wing extremist chancellor that will endanger our democracy on many points.” His comments reflect growing fears among Austria’s political and civil society that an FPO-led government could undermine key democratic institutions, curtail civil liberties, and steer the country in a more authoritarian direction. Many critics of the FPO argue that its rise is part of a broader populist wave that is eroding democratic norms across Europe.
The fear is that an FPO-led government could stoke social divisions, roll back progressive policies, and undermine Austria’s long-standing role as a neutral actor in international relations. Moreover, such a coalition would likely result in a hardening of Austria’s stance on issues such as immigration, national security, and economic policy, potentially alienating Austria from its European neighbours and international allies.
A Potential Snap Election
With Karl Nehammer stepping down, the prospect of a snap election looms large. If new elections are called, it would be the second time in less than a year that Austrians are asked to cast their votes, and this could serve as an opportunity for the electorate to reset the country’s political trajectory. However, given the current political climate and the rise of the FPO, a snap election could further polarise Austria’s political system, potentially leading to an even more fragmented parliament.
The results of any early election could reshape Austria’s political landscape, but it remains unclear whether this would lead to a more stable government or whether it would simply deepen the divisions that have characterised the current political impasse.
Looking Ahead: Austria’s Uncertain Future
Austria now faces a critical juncture in its political development. The collapse of coalition talks and the resignation of Chancellor Nehammer have left the country without a clear government or direction. While the rise of the FPO suggests that Herbert Kickl may soon be called upon to form a government, this outcome is likely to spark significant debate and opposition, particularly from Austria’s more liberal and centrist factions.
The future of Austria’s political landscape remains highly uncertain. Will the country lean towards the populist right under Kickl’s leadership, or will it opt for another round of elections in an attempt to break the deadlock? The next few weeks will likely determine the country’s direction, with all eyes on Austria as it navigates this challenging political crisis.
In the meantime, the resignation of Chancellor Nehammer and the collapse of coalition talks underscore the growing divisions within Austria’s political elite and the increasing prominence of far-right politics. As the political future of the country hangs in the balance, the outcome of this crisis will have far-reaching implications for Austria’s domestic and international standing.